Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to strike the US Gulf Coast as a hurricane
Tropical Storm Isaias formed Wednesday in the warm waters off eastern Mexico and forecasters predicted it will quickly strengthen into the first hurricane of the Atlantic season before striking the U.S. Gulf Coast later in the week.
Communities in Isaias' potential path moved quickly to prepare with landfall forecast as soon as Friday evening. Some Gulf oil wells paused production and an Alabama beach city canceled a weekend festival known to draw thousands of tourists. Florida's governor declared a state of emergency for more than one-third of the state's counties.
As it moves inland, Isaias might also disrupt Saturday's college football showdown between rivals Georgia and Alabama — a game President Donald Trump has planned to attend.
Isaias could become a major Category 3 hurricane, with winds of 111 mph (178 kph) or stronger, before it strikes land, said Michael Brennan, director of the U.S. National Hurricane Center.
“We’re expecting multiple dangerous, life-threatening impacts along portions of the northern Gulf Coast beginning Friday and continuing into the weekend," Brennan said in a video briefing Wednesday.
The storm was on track to tie or break a 121-year-old record as the latest arriving initial hurricane of the Atlantic season. According to the National Weather Service, the record dates to 1905, when the year’s first Atlantic hurricane formed on Oct. 8.
The Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet this year because of a strong El Niño, which disrupts storm formation over that ocean. Storm activity has been above average in the Pacific, where Tropical Storm Simon also formed Wednesday off Mexico.
The Miami-based hurricane center issued a hurricane watch Wednesday for the northern Gulf Coast from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass on the Florida Panhandle. The watch means hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours.
Brennan said dangerous storm surge could affect an even wider area, from southeast Louisiana to Florida's Big Bend. Heavy rains of 3 to 7 inches (7 to 18 centimeters) could trigger flash flooding near the coast, with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (3 to 8 centimeters) as far inland as Tennessee and the western Carolinas.
Isaias was centered about 225 miles (365 kilometers) west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 500 miles (805 kilometers) south-southwest of the Mississippi River’s mouth, according to the hurricane center. It had maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 kph) and was moving east-northeast at 8 mph (13 kph).
Forecasters predict Isaias (pronounced ees-ah-EE’-ahs, according to the hurricane center) will become a hurricane by Thursday as it turns northward toward the U.S. Gulf Coast. Though its path and timing could shift, the storm is expected to make landfall late Friday or early Saturday.
Isaias is expected to strike along a wide swath of coastline that's no stranger to major hurricanes. One of the 20th century's worst storms, Hurricane Camille, killed more than 250 people after hitting land near Waveland, Mississippi, in 1969. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 razed neighborhoods in Mississippi, flooded New Orleans and killed nearly 1,400 people. And Hurricane Michael leveled homes and buildings near Panama City, Florida, in 2018.
Ahead of the storm, oil and gas producers shut down a significant share of offshore production in the Gulf, which accounts for almost 15% of crude pumped annually in the U.S.
As of Wednesday, producers had temporarily halted about 25% of the oil produced in the region, taking about 511,000 barrels a day off the market, according to the Marine Minerals Administration. It said eight of the Gulf's 371 manned oil platforms had been evacuated.
With oil prices already high, the production cuts are steep enough to affect oil markets, though other Gulf hurricanes have caused larger disruptions, said Jim Burkhard, global head of crude oil market research for S&P Global Energy. More concerning, he said, is whether Isaias strikes as a powerful storm near refineries.
“I would characterize the oil market risk as moderate, but rising,” Burkhard said in an email.
In Gulf Shores, Alabama, the storm threat caused organizers to cancel the National Shrimp Festival that had been scheduled for Thursday through the weekend. The event drew an estimated 325,000 people last year.
Gulf Shores resident Maranie Adams spent Wednesday gathering water and other supplies as her family moved some belongings, including a hot tub motor, to higher ground.
Adams said she, her husband and two adult sons plan to ride out the storm at home, roughly a half-mile from shore. Sheltering with them indoors will be the family’s flock of chickens, including five roosters.
“We’re having to get crates to bring them into the house so they don’t blow away,” Adams said. “It’s going to be noisy.”
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 25 counties in the Panhandle and Big Bend regions. The declaration activates the state's emergency management plan for hurricanes, allowing officials to deploy disaster responders and equipment.
In Pensacola on the Florida Panhandle, electric utilities were prepositioning crews to quickly repair any power outages. City officials provided sand for residents to fill sandbags to protect their homes against flooding. And Pensacola Mayor D.C. Reeves urged people to check on elderly neighbors and others who might need help.
“Obviously no need to panic at this point," Reeves told a news conference Wednesday. "This is really about preparation.”
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Rico reported from Atlanta and Collins reported from Hartford, Connecticut. Associated Press journalists Russ Bynum in Savannah, Georgia, and Julie Walker in New York contributed to this report.
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